Ocean State Estimation Projects

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	Fits and Forecasts in the CalCOFI Region:
Ecosystem Dynamics

The California Current System (CCS) is among the most biologically productive, and economically important regions in the ocean. A specific subregion of the CCS has been studied extensively since 1949 by the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI). However, because of the low space and time resolution of the sampling, the data from this program have been unable to resolve the mesoscale variability which dominates the biological productivity in this region. New techniques for obtaining quasi-synoptic, high space and time resolution ocean color (SeaWIFS), surface wind (ERS-1/2, SSM/I and NSCAT), sea surface temperature (AVHRR) sea surface height (TPOEX/Poseidon), and ocean current (ADCP) data are now available for constraining coupled ocean biogeochemical and circulation models.

The focus of this project is to use the available remotely sensed ocean color data to quantify the biological scales of variability which have not been resolved in CalCOFI or other studies. In order to accomplish this, we are attempting to fit the existing CalCOFI chemical, biological and bio-optical data and the available remotely sensed biological data (ocean color) with a biological model driven by our physical data fits in the CalCOFI domain.

With this approach we will be able to address many issues regarding what biological and physical processes control the large scale and mesoscale features observed in the CalCOFI region. While upwelling events centered on Pt. Conception control to first order the nutrient supply in the northern portion of the CalCOFI region, the time evolution of the water after it has been upwelled and while it is advected away from the upwelling center is controlled by the in situ biological processes and other nutrient injection/diffusion processes. While there is a strong similarity between sea surface temperature and ocean color images on a large scale, these similarities are not observed at smaller scales (Pelaez and McGowan, 1986).

A 7-component (chlorophyll, phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrate, ammonia and 2-detritus) food web model is now running and being tested as part of the CalCOFI domain version of ROMS. It exhibits stable fluctuations of biological fields in the presense of the model's intrinsic mesoscale variations over the seasonal cycle.

Di Lorenzo, E., A. J. Miller, D. J. Neilson, B. D. Cornuelle and J. R. Moisan, 2001:
Modeling observed California Current mesoscale eddies and the ecosystem response.
International Journal of Remote Sensing, sub judice.

Miller, A. J., E. Di Lorenzo, D. J. Neilson, B. D. Cornuelle and J. R. Moisan, 2000:
Modeling CalCOFI Observations during El Nino: Fitting physics and biology.
California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports, 41, 87-97.

Miller, A. J., J. C. McWilliams, N. Schneider, J. S. Allen, J. A. Barth, R. C. Beardsley, F. P. Chavez, T. K. Chereskin, C. A. Edwards, R. L. Haney, K. A. Kelly, J. C. Kindle, L. N. Ly, J. R. Moisan, M. A. Noble, P. P. Niiler, L. Y. Oey, F. B. Schwing, R. K. Shearman, and M. S. Swenson, 1999:
Observing and modeling the California Current System.
Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 80, 533-539.

Dr. John R. Moisan (NASA GSFC/Wallops)

Dr. Douglas J. Neilson (CRD/SIO)

Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (EAS/GaTech)

Dr. Arthur J. Miller (CRD/SIO)

Dr. Bruce D. Cornuelle (PORD-CRD/SIO)

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Email us at dneilson@ucsd.edu